Micro View: 30-Day History & Backtest (Auto-Scaled)
Dotted/Dashed lines = Live Forecast | Faded solid lines = Past shadow forecasts
Model Accuracy vs. Baseline (Card Specific)
Comparing Median Absolute Percentage Error (MdAPE) of our models against a 'Persistence Baseline' (assuming the price never changes). Models should consistently fall below the transparent backdrop column.
Vol (CV): Standard deviation relative to mean. Standardizes risk comparison.
Skew: Positive = Prone to spikes. Negative = Prone to flash crashes.
Set-Level Market Trajectory & Forecasts
Comparing median actual price trajectory over the past 30 days alongside the median 30-day forecast for the Chronos and Hybrid GRU models.
Card-Level Forecasts & Entropy
Comparing 30-day projected changes against historical Sample Entropy. Sorted by Entropy to highlight the most unpredictable, erratic pricing behaviors.